Analysis confirms continued oil demand to 2032, highlighting energy realities
A recent report from the analysis firm Wood Mackenzie validates a reality we in the energy services sector have observed for some time: global oil demand is projected to continue rising until at least 2032.
This forecast, driven by the transport and petrochemical sectors, presents a pragmatic counterpoint to prevailing narratives. For us at Oilfield International Services, this analysis confirms the essential, ongoing role of hydrocarbons in the global energy mix and the critical importance of our work in supporting reliable energy production.
The Reality of the Global Energy Mix
Despite trillions of pounds invested in alternative energy, the report notes that oil, gas, and coal still satisfy approximately 80% of global primary energy needs. This is not due to a lack of will, but rather a reflection of practical realities.
Hydrocarbons remain deeply embedded within our economic infrastructure for clear reasons: they are reliable, cost-competitive, and backed by a deeply integrated global system of production and delivery.
Understanding the Pace of Transition
The Wood Mackenzie report also illuminates the significant hurdles facing the energy transition, explaining why its pace has slowed.
Alternative sources, such as wind and solar, continue to grapple with fundamental challenges. These include intermittency (weather dependence) and output variability. Furthermore, common cost metrics often overlook the true, systemic expense. When the costs of necessary backup generation, grid infrastructure, and large-scale battery storage are factored in, the economic landscape becomes far more complex.
This is a key reason why hydrocarbon-based generators, even with carbon levies, remain highly competitive and essential for grid stability.
An Energy Addition, Not a Replacement
This practical context is reflected in global policy, where many nations are increasingly prioritising energy security alongside environmental goals.
The fact that coal demand reached a record high last year, despite decarbonisation efforts, illustrates this point clearly. This trend suggests the world is currently experiencing an energy addition rather than a rapid transition. New energy sources are being added to the system, but they are primarily meeting new, incremental demand: for example, from data centres and industrial growth. They are not, at this stage, displacing the existing hydrocarbon baseload.
This is evident even in regions pursuing aggressive green policies. The European Union has faced energy cost inflation and reliability challenges. Meanwhile, China's significant build-out of renewables is solidly backed up by a massive and growing coal capacity to ensure supply is never interrupted.
Our Role in a Pragmatic Future
Wood Mackenzie's base-case scenario projects that hydrocarbons will continue to provide the bulk of global energy for the foreseeable future. The report notes that achieving a net-zero scenario would require a massive, globally aligned investment of $4.3 trillion per year, a level of funding and political agreement that is not currently present.
At Oilfield International Services, we see this report as a call for pragmatic and balanced stewardship.
The world requires reliable and affordable energy to function and grow. Our commitment is to support our clients in the upstream sector, providing the essential services needed to meet this sustained demand safely, efficiently, and responsibly through 2032 and beyond.